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Small buses work best because they can pick up a few people at a time and drop them off at a locations that are next to each other.

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Jarrett July 21, 2016 at 6:30 pm

On the last three comments:

Yes, the geometry problem is solved as long as you’re in a suburban place where there’s lots of space. And I agree, as I said, that the ‘direct to destination’ goal is probably possible with automation in lower density places, where you have room for all the small vehicles.

And I would not react to Musk’s “direct to destination” language this way if I were not hearing the same confusion over and over in my work as a transit consultant, and seeing how actual useful transit systems are dying from the apathy — if not hostility — that this kind of tech PR is engendering.

The larger problem on display here, in Musk’s text and in the last few comments, is the assumption that the suburban or small-town experience — “Overland Park, Kansas” in one commenter’s phrase — is the normal point of view. Because the “direct to destination” fantasy is doing tremendous harm to the ability of DENSE communities — places that are already dense or want to be denser — to have a clear conversation about what kind of transit they will need, and what kind of urban planning they need to do to get there.

Musk may have exaggerated in this passage. Surely the clumsy middle sentence in the paragraph I quote suggests he doesn’t subject his work to editors. But it’s still fair game, because lots of people are exaggerating in the same direction, and doing the damage I describe.

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Sean Gillis July 22, 2016 at 6:34 am

Jarrett, I just did a radio interview on rapid transit’s potential in Halifax, and a phone-in question was whether we should bother investing in fixed route service because of potential technology like automated vanpools. So even as a part-time advocate, I’ve come upon arguments against potential transit investment – in places that are underserved but could support good quality fixed routes.

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Andrew Cone July 22, 2016 at 6:45 am

You mention “seeing how actual useful transit systems are dying from the apathy — if not hostility — that this kind of tech PR is engendering.” Can you give some specific examples?

I live in the Bay Area and from what I can tell, there is overwhelming support for multiple BART extensions, Caltrain electrification, a new muni line, and to some extent BRT throughout the bay (though people never seem to get excited about busses). I hear people praise Uber all the time and even hope for a self-driving golden age, but it seems orthogonal to people’s support for transit improvement.

Reply
Ted K. July 22, 2016 at 5:28 pm

Improved mass transit for the S.F. Bay area ? Yes, rail and bus upgrades and extensions are welcome.

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2017-08-23T10:25:59+00:00 November 8th, 2016 | By: Bryn Farnsworth, Ph.D.

Good research begins well before the first experiment starts.

During World War II, a statistician by the name of Under Sale Online Free Shipping Prices Boohoo Wrap Over Skort O Ring Playsuit Outlet Enjoy Cheapest For Sale RiN00FPlRj
was given a rather unexpected job, given his background: of improving the survival rate of US aircraft. Wald was a smart man and looked over the prior analyses that had been done. The previous investigators had seen the damage and destruction dealt to the aircrafts, and advised more armor being added to the most damaged areas, to increase their protection. Specific parts were shot and torn up, so new armor was added.

Yet the survivability rate didn’t increase. In fact, it decreased, as the new armor added weight and reduced the agility of the planes, and they still arrived back with damage in the same areas. Wald observed all of this and advised that the airforce start adding armor only to the untouched areas – the parts without a trace of damage. He reasoned that the only data about survivability was coming from the surviving planes themselves; the ones that came back with damage showed exactly where the non-lethal blows could be dealt.

With the advice taken onboard, the survivability increased and the rest is, well, history . While this makes for a great example of lateral thinking, it also tells us something critical about data collection – that of selection bias.

Selection bias is an experimental error that occurs when the participant pool, or the subsequent data, is not representative of the target population.

There are several types of selection bias, and most can be prevented before the results are delivered. Although there might not always be an entire airforce on the line when it comes to getting it right, it’s still essential for good research.

Let’s go through some examples, and explore what can be done to stop this bias occurring before the first data point is even collected.

Sampling Bias

There are several aspects of sampling bias, all of which ultimately mean that the population being studied does not provide the data that we require to make conclusions.

A common example of this happening in practice is through self-selection . Specific groups of people may be drawn to taking part in a particular study because of self-selecting characteristics . It is known that individuals who are inclined to Top-Rated Parisian Tropical Print Off Shoulder Playsuit Best Store To Get Cheap Price Get Online BCU62LltGo
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are more likely to take part in certain studies, which could skew data from a study if it is examining those personality traits (and possibly within other studies too).

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An hour’s drive northeast of Denver, the Rocky Mountains fade into the background like a distant memory. The crisp, snow-capped peaks are replaced by rolling cow pastures.

In the middle of that farmland is Weld County, Colorado. In the middle of Weld County is Greeley. The unassuming little town has a population of little more than 100,000 people. It exists by the grace of farming and manufacturing. It is safe to say that Greeley is not what most people would consider a tourist destination … unless you’re a craft beer enthusiast.

Greeley is also home to, by some accounts, one of the best breweries in the United States right now— WeldWerks Brewing Company .

If you’ve never heard of WeldWerks Brewing, here is an abridged history: In 2008, Neil Fisher moved from North Carolina to Greeley. In 2010, he started homebrewing in his garage, where he met Colin Jones and a host of other guys who would come over to help brew, but mostly drink and watch sports. In 2015, after some noteworthy accolades in homebrewing competitions, Fisher and Jones opened WeldWerks. Three years later, they’re shaping the craft brewing landscape.

“We want to be that brewery that’s taking our industry, not just in Colorado, but in the country, to the next place,” Fisher, co-founder and head brewer, said of their focus on the future and pushing the limits on styles. “I think what’s next is, what can we bring you guys that’s new and different and innovative?”

For this reason, it’s hard to pinpoint if WeldWerks has a flagship beer. Their hefeweizen is the only beer left from their original lineup—and only as a show of respect because it won a silver medal at the Le Temps des Cerises Womens FMALORIE00000ML Cardigan 2018 New Outlet Popular Fast Delivery Online gHa6jfHR8x
, noted Fisher.

Beyond that, the GABF gold-winning Medianoche barrel-aged stout and the fan-favorite Juicy Bits New England-style IPA have dedicated tanks. Everything else is a rotation, seasonal, or a one-off. In fact, to keep pushing the limits on style, Fisher and company have an ambitious plan to brew 100 new recipes in 2018.

“Brand new beers we’ve never released—hitting the market, hitting the taproom. That’s in addition to the other stuff we’re going to keep bringing in, like Juicy Bits and all the variants we’ve released in the past.”

Think about the magnitude of that plan for just a moment. Fisher estimated that this means in 2018 they will brew between 400 and 600 beers. For this, they moved 100 percent of their operations back to the Greeley facility—they were contract brewing some of their year-rounds, like the hefeweizen, at Sleeping Giant in Denver—and significantly increased their in-house production capacity.

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